| 张海明，席小莉.人口集聚背景下的广州市学龄前人口变动趋势预测[J].陕西学前师范学院学报,2022,38(11):71-82 |
| 人口集聚背景下的广州市学龄前人口变动趋势预测 |
| Prediction of the Change Trend of Preschool-age Population in Guangzhou under the Background of Population Agglomeration |
| 投稿时间：2022-08-10 修订日期：2022-09-05 |
| DOI：10. 11995/j. issn. 2095-770X. 2022. 11. 010 |
| 中文关键词: 人口集聚 学龄前人口 人口预测 广州市 |
| 英文关键词: population agglomeration preschool-age population population prediction Guangzhou |
| 基金项目:广州市哲学社会科学“十四五”规划立项课题（2021GZGJ161） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 运用队列要素法，基于广州市第七次人口普查数据及历年统计年鉴数据，采用国际人口软件PADIS-INT预测了广州市不同净迁入水平与生育水平的九种方案下的2021-2035年0-6岁学龄前人口的变动趋势。在此基础上进一步优选出四种方案及一种最优方案，并对其对应的托育阶段人口数与学前教育阶段人口数的变动趋势进行了分析。建议：学前教育的发展应着眼中长期需求变化，从追求数量扩张的“外延式”模式转向提升教育质量的“内涵式”模式；托育服务发展应在短期内增加供给，补齐托育服务资源短板，长期则应综合平衡托育服务的供给与需求，切忌盲目扩张，造成教育资源的浪费；将2-3岁幼童托育服务直接纳入幼儿园体系，实施“托幼一体化”。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on Cohort-component method and the data of the seventh Guangzhou population census and the annual statistical yearbook, this paper uses international population software PADIS-INT to predict the change trend of preschool population aged between 0-6 years old under nine scenarios of different net immigration levels and fertility levels in Guangzhou during 2021-2035. Furthermore, this paper selects four scenarios and one optimal scenario to analyze changing trend of the population in childcare stage and kindergarten stage. Therefore, this paper suggests that development of preschool education should focus on the change of medium and long term needs, from the “extension” mode of pursuing quantitative expansion to the “convolution” mode of improving the quality of education. The development of childcare service should increase supply in the short term to make up for the shortage of childcare service resources, and balance the supply and demand of childcare service comprehensively in the long term to avoid blind expansion and waste of education resources. It also suggests to integrate childcare services for children aged 2-3 into the kindergarten system in order to achieve the “integration of kindergarten with nursery education”. |
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